Duke’s EPL Draft Kings Plays for 1/13

UPDATES: 

FIRST – TOTTENHAM ARE THE AFTERNOON HAMMER BUT WE WON’T KNOW TEAM NEWS UNTIL LATER.  IF YOU ARE GOING THIS WAY LEAVE YOURSELF SALARY TO ADJUST AFTER TEAM NEWS.

FABREGAS STARTS AND GIVES YOU ACCESS TO CHELSEA AT A DISCOUNTED PRICE.  HE’S ON SET PIECE DUTY AS WELL. 

AYOZE PEREZ STARTS!  $4,800….TEMPTING

ARNAUTOVIC IS BACK AND STARTING AT THE #9.  HE’S BEEN HOT.  HE HAS GOOD VALUE AT $7,900.  CASH VIABLE.

BAKARY SAKO DOES START FOR PALACE.  YOU DON’T HAVE TO HAVE HIM ON YOUR MAIN TEAM BUT HE’LL BE ON MINE.

NO HOLEBAS.  ZEEGELAAR GETS THE START.  DAMN.  YOU CAN USE ZEEGELAAR BUT I LIKED HOLEBAS A HELL OF A LOT MORE.

NO PIED.  STILL TOO INJURED TO PLAY.  CHECK DEFENSIVE NOTES FOR OTHER OPTIONS.

What a fast and furious Christmas season that was.  Tons of chances to make money and a bit of practice before the wild World Cup schedule this summer. (NOTE:  We are going HARD this summer with coverage)  SUBSCRIBE SUBSCRIBE SUBSCRIBE

7 game slate this Saturday that will require some creative roster construction.  I know where I want to attack but where will we be able to spend up?  Let’s dive in!

For those of you who are new…welcome.  I always start with Vegas to figure out where not only we are going to start, but where the rest probably go as well.  We can’t play everyone so these are the guys I’m looking at.

1.13 31.13 4

A couple of thoughts on a few games:

We have what must be the lowest total of the season in the West Brom v Brighton game.  1.5 with only (-163) juice on the over.  For good reason too.  They’ve combined for 7 goals TOTAL over their last 5 games.

Southampton are in BAD form.  No wins in their last 9 games.  They’ve conceded 9 goals in their last 5.

Burnley have played 14 games against teams lower than them in the table. (as Crystal Palace is..) All but 2 of those games have had less than 2 goals scored.  The total is 2.5 with HEAVY juice on the under.

IN FORM TEAMS:  Last 5 Games

Chelsea – 11 pts

Tottenham – 10 pts

Crystal Palace – 8 pts

West Ham – 8 pts

Newcastle – 7 pts

MOST GOALS SCORED:  Last 5 Games

Tottenam – 12

West Ham – 11

Chelsea – 10

Crystal Palace – 8

Leicester City – 7

MOST GOALS CONCEDED: Last 5 games

Swansea City – 12

Watford – 11

Southampton – 9

Leicester City – 9

West Ham – 8

Forwards:

Kane – $12,000

This makes me nervous because of the price but I think Kane hits value here.  Everton are conceding 1.73 goals against on the road but I think people will be scared off by the price.  Add in the fact that Allardyce has shut things down at the back a bit.  That also means they have nothing going forward so I expect plenty of attacking soccer from Tottenham.  He needs to score 2 goals to hit value.  He could do it and is averaging a ridiculous 5.7 shots/game.  Kane does have 18 goals on the year with a true xG of only 13.35.  He’s playing a bit over his head but Kane is head and shoulders better than the average player.  I’m trusting him this week at lower ownership than you might think.

Richarlison – $7,500

He’s fucked so many people that I think I have to love this spot.  His price is suppressed and so should his ownership.  He’s been very unlucky with only 5 goals.  His xG is nearly 9. As I mentioned, Southampton are struggling mightily.  Watford aren’t in much better form but did get a result at the weekend to potentially boost the team confidence.  He is still averaging over 3 shots per game.

Perez – $4,800

I NEVER target Newcastle but this Swansea team is the pits right now.  (12 goals against last 5) Newcastle haven’t been scoring a ton but Perez is the lone bright spot with 3 goals in his last 2 games.  He isn’t even guaranteed to start but if he does, LETS GO.  More than anything he provides some salary relief with goal upside.

Fade:

Morata – $9,900

Hold on to your nuts boys!  We simply can’t afford both Morata and Kane.  I think ownership will lean towards Morata due to his price and game total.  This fade makes me a bit nervous but with only 1 goal in his last 7 games, and a complete lack of confidence, I’m hoping his shitty form continues.  People will want to get a piece of the game with highest total, with Chelsea at home and their #9 under $10k.  This is usually a spot I would attack straight away but I’m going to attack Leicester elsewhere ON MY MAIN TEAM.  The confidence is simply at an all time low for Alvaro.  Truth be told, if you don’t roster Kane then you should probably look towards Morata.

Midfield:

Eriksen – $9,100

We have to pick and choose our spot and this is a spot I love.  When these teams met in September, Eriksen found his way onto the score sheet.  Everton are a much different squad now but believe it or not, I think this Everton sets up better for Eriksen.  They will need his guile and technical ability to break down the Everton bunker.

Ritchie – $7,700

The price makes me a little nervous as it’s near the top of his season high.  His ceiling is about 16 so 2x is by no means a guarantee.  This is all about the match-up.  Swansea have allowed 12 goals over their last 5.  They are “leaky leaky” at the back.  Plenty of opportunities for Ritchie to whip in his signature crosses.  Will anyone get on the end of those crosses??  That’s what likely leaves Ritchie off my main lineup on Saturday.

Doucoure – $5,300

Can you tell I like Watford?  Listen, we can’t use all of these players but a Richarlison/Doucoure team isn’t the worst thing in the world and only eats up $12.8k.  If I’m only playing one Watford player its probably this guy.  He’s averaging 3.25 shots per game over his last 4 but the troubling piece is only 1 of those has been on target.  He has goal upside so we can do it.  He’s also far outperforming his xG so we can’t bank on a goal but certainly can make an educated play.

Bakary Sako – $5,000

Townsend is out.  He’s been a massive part of the attack lately and Sako should be a great replacement.  When given time, he produces.  A great salary saver as well with goal upside.

Hazard – $10,500

Chelsea are going to score but I don’t know how many.  I don’t see them going ham and Leicester have been leaky but have the players to make this interesting.  I don’t think you can totally fade Chelsea so if no Morata, you need Hazard.  I do prefer Hazard over Willian if both start as projected.

Milivojevic – $3,700

My money maker.  On Penalty duty and picking up points here and there.  You need shares of this guy every weekend.  Not a must play if only making one lineup but great salary saver.

Fade:

Alonso – $6,700

Mahrez might be in the shop window for Leicester and will pin Alonso back a touch more than he’s used to.  He thrives on getting forward.  I think that severely limits his upside.  He can walk out on the field to 1x but the path to 2 or 3x looks more difficult in this mathcup.

Major caveat:  In the off chance that Mahrez doesn’t play I will be plugging Alonso into my lineup.  It’s THAT big of a difference.  

Defense:

Trippier – $6,300

He’s expensive for a reason.  Everton should sit a bit and allow Trippier to get forward.  Honestly, I’m hoping Trippier sits and we get Aurier at $600 cheaper.

Holebas – $5,600

This could be a shootout.  Holebas loves getting forward.   6 of his last 7 games he’s put in 8 or more crosses.  If we can get Doucoure or Richarlison on the end of one of these we are dancing naked.

Pied – $5,300

This game features fullbacks that get forward because they literally have to.  There isn’t a ton of quality in front of them.  If  Pied gets the start, I’m plugging him in.   He did miss the FA Cup match on Saturday so watch his fitness.

DAVIES – $6K

CRESSWELL – $5.1K

BRUNO – $3.4K

Goalkeeper:

Darlow – $5,300

I don’t trust Swansea’s attack and Newcastle should get on the board.  That means potential clean sheet and win.  Swansea get off 8.5 shots per game (lowest on the slate) with only 4 of those coming from inside the penalty area.  Let’s hope for some speculative efforts leading to easy saves.  He’s kept 2 clean sheets in a row.

Courtois/Lloris – $5,900/$6,000

I shouldn’t have to tell you to play the two highest priced players who happen to be overwhelmingly the largest favorites but a couple of notes on each game.

Everton don’t mount much of an attack but do have the quality to pop one in.  I’m more worried about Lloris’ clean sheet than Darlow.

Leicester are much better going forward and not only is the clean sheet in jeopardy, the win is as well.

Both will be popular and I can’t fault you for using either but know that I like Darlow better.  I do like Courtois better than Lloris who I won’t be rostering.

Low $ flyer…….

Nick Pope – $4,200

People may have jumped off the bandwagon as Burnley hit the tough stretch of their schedule.  Burnley have performed against teams below them in the table.  This could be a sneaky little play.  Crystal Palace have been hot and Burnley are on the road but I expect some regression to the mean.

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