12/23 EPL Picks. Let’s RIIIIDDDDDEEEEE

UPDATES:  NO GLEN MURRAY FOR BRIGHTON.  HEMED STARTS UP TOP.  WATFORD ARE IN BAD FORM BUT I CAN’T FIND WHERE TO ATTACK.  GROSS AND KNOCKAERT ARE THE OBVIOUS BUT A BIT EXPENSIVE FOR THEIR CEILINGS.

NO WILL HUGHES FOR WATFORD. DAMN. 

DAVID SILVA DOES START.  THINK WE NEED AT LEAST 2 PIECES OF THE CITY SIDE BUT THEY ARE RIGHTLY EXPENSIVE.  MY TOP 2 ARE KDB AND STERLING.  SILVA IS A GOOD, LITTLE LESS EXPENSIVE OPTION.

AYEW/ANTONIO/ARNAUTOVIC ARE INTERESTING FOR THEIR PRICE.  PREFER ANTONIO OF THE 3.

HENRY SAIVET IS A LOW COST FLYER IN CLASSIC MODE AT $3.8K

NO BERTRAND OR SOARES FOR SOUTHAMPTON. DO THEY STILL PUSH FULLBACKS FORWARD?  DOUBTFUL.  STILL LIKE CHARLIE AUSTIN FOR HIS PRICE TODAY.

6’7″ PETER CROUCH STARTS.  NO DIOUF FOR STOKE.  SHAQIRI LIKES TO PLAY BALLS IN THE BOX TO THE BIG MAN.  PROBLEM IS HE USUALLY KNOCKS THEM DOWN FOR OTHERS TO FINISH.  NOT GOING THERE I DON’T THINK.

NO J AYEW FOR SWANSEA.  NARSINGH GETS THE START WITH ABRAHAM.  INTERESTING TEAM NEWS THAT HAS ME A BIT HIGHER ON THEIR CHANCES TO BAG A GOAL. THEY ARE HAVING A GO OF IT. 

ZAHA STARTS UP TOP AS EXPECTED.

With only boring ass Carabao Cup futbol at midweek it feels like it’s been forever since we’ve last talked.  Let’s dive in.

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With all due respect to Kane and Eriksen, we need a piece of the City game.  KDB is the safe play but Aguero has 2-3 goal upside.  Jesus played 90 minutes midweek and won’t be involved from the start.

Of the 2 from Tottenham, I actually prefer Eriksen.  Burnley are disciplined and structured at the back.  Kane is player who has a killer instinct but need chances.  Without goals, he rarely finds value.

TIER 1: KDB, Aguero, Eriksen, Kane

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STERLING!!  Get this, City has score 15 goals in the last 15 minutes of the game. 10 of those have come at home!  Of Sterling’s last 4 goals, all have come after the 80th minute.  He’s the Leonard Fournette of the EPL.  He’s not big like Leonard, but by the end of the game people don’t want to defend him.  His pace kills.  Literally kills defenders.  City win this game by 2+ goals and I think at least 1 of those comes after the 75th minute.  He’s leading the tier for sure.  For me at least…

Shaqiri is a man on fire.  The matchup is a good one but he’s been generating a lot of points by getting on the scoresheet.  I don’t know that we can expect that but he’s cash game viable.

All of my models show Richarlison having a good game.  He’s actually better without that fat fuck Troy Deeney in the lineup.  Watford are really banged up all over the pitch so they will need to score goals to get a result.

Sane and Silva are a bit of a toss up.  To be honest, I prefer Silva against teams that sit back and absorb pressure and Sane against teams that try to play.  For those of you who watch the games, which is Bournemouth?  Exactly.  I like Sane here but both are very viable.

One thing to note, Bournemouth did have a go on Wednesday v Chelsea.  They rested Ake and Defoe was taken off very early for Ibe.  Arter played about 70 minutes.  I don’t know that they will be able to hang for 90 minutes.  While they’ve been playing better, having only 30-35% of the ball is really tiring.

TIER 2: Sterling, Sane, Richarlison, Shaqiri, Silva

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Does Wilf Zaha score?  That is the biggest question of this tier.  Mooy and Ritchie are going to suck up some ownership so getting a goalscorer from a tier without many could be valuable.

Mooy has been solid and after a run against the top of the table where he struggled a bit, he is back to his consistent ways.  He doesn’t have the upside of a Zaha or even an Alli/Son, he’s a good cash game option.  He’s averaging just over a shot per game and converted the penalty last week.

Ritchie has 10-12 cross upside.  The problem has been anyone getting on the end of those crosses.  Considering he hasn’t scored all year, Ritchie is very reliant on someone finishing his crosses.  He’s OK but not a play for me this week.

I prefer Son over Alli this week but will not be playing a ton of Tottenham anyway.

Bernardo played 120 minutes midweek and probably won’t be involved from the start.

Townsend is interesting but I’d prefer Zaha in a PickEm contenst for the goal upside.

TIER 3: Mooy, Zaha, Son, Ritchie, Alli

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The forwards in this tier are VERY hit or miss.  Are you trusting West Ham to create enough chances for Chicharito to luck into one?  Are you investing your money in Arnautovic because he scored v Chelsea?

For me the play is stead eddy Gudmundsson.  His ceiling is probably 15-20 range but his floor is 10.  Safe as can be.

Cabaye has not been asked to do as much recently as he used to be.  With only 1 assist on the year and 0 goals, he’s more of a cash game play than GPP.  Still prefer others.

Trippier is probably #2 in the tier for me.  He always gets forward and has been a real revelation for Spurs.  I remember having a conversation with my Spurs buddy about their fear of selling Walker to City and before they bought Aurier.  The direct quote was something like “fuck that guy, he’s shit” in so many words.  Turns out he was way wrong.

Rose is OK.

Gross is good against open teams.  Watford are VERY open.  Just an fyi.  Low ceiling.

TIER 4:  Gudmundsson, Trippier, Austin (GPP), Rose, Cabaye

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If Aurier stars over Trippier you can, and probably should, go there.

I love Antonio in this spot.  At Home with no Lanzini means Antonio will have all the attacking opportunities he wants.  He is dealing with a slight calf injury.  IF HE MISSES, BUMP ANDRE AYEW IN TIER 6!

I literally don’t know who’s healthy on Watford.  They are a mash unit.  They are going to rely on Holebas quite a bit for service going forward.  When healthy he gets in 10 crosses easily.

Matty Phillips is interesting as a low owned player.  He’s questionable as it stands but should get the start, you can differentiate there.

Remember me saying Watford are a mash unit?  If you want to go balls to the wall and pray for a goal, Glen Murray is your best option.

There are a lot of injuries in this tier and team news will be key.

TIER 5: Antonio, Holebas, Aurier, Phillips, Davies, Murray/Mounie (GPP flier for a goal)

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Will Hughes is a late fitness test but should he start, I like this spot a lot.  When he’s played, he’s been productive. 2 goals and an assist in 5 games ain’t bad. The worrying part is he is yet to finish 90 minutes this season and coming off an injury.  Maybe not a cash play for those reasons.

If not Will, you can look to Cleverly in the same game from the same team.

I mentioned previously that A. Ayew is a play if Antonio misses out.  His brother will start and get the 90 for the Swans.  Without a coach, how will Swansea play?  Hard to say at this point.  I’m probably investing elsewhere.

Gundongen has been awesome lately but played a ton midweek and isn’t quite in a spot to start.

Benteke is out.  This should mean the attacking play will come from Zaha, Townsend and push Loftus-Cheek further forward.  He’s capable.

I don’t like playing Stanislas ever but especially not in this spot against City where they will have about 30% of the ball. PASS on all Bournmeouth players this week.

Masuaku is solid but not spectacular.  If you aren’t loving anything else I don’t mind you going there.

If Sahko starts, he’s the most likely player to score a goal in this tier.  Book it.

TIER 6:  Hughes, Loftus-Cheek, Cleverly, A. Ayew, Masuaku, Sahko,

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