Duke’s EPL Money – Wednesday Midweek Special

MAJOR UPDATES:  WTF ARE THE MANAGERS THINKING TODAY.  CHECK EACH TIER

How’d you do this weekend?  If you took my top pick in tier 1-5 and pick 2 in tier 6 this happened.  I can’t make it much easier for you guys!  Let’s go!

We get some midweek fun.  Let’s make some money!

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City at home…..everyone will be on them and for good reason.  Chelsea have been spectacular at home.  They tend to bury bad teams as well.  Keep an eye out here.  Arsenal seem to be in form going 4-1 in their last 5 with the only loss being a 3-1 loss to City.  GK in tier 6 could be the decider with a lot of chalk today.

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This is interesting.  First things first, I don’t want any shares of Jesus or Coutinho.  Jesus most likely won’t start and Coutinho could bite me in the ass but I like everyone else better.

My top play today is Aguero.  City throttle teams at home and Southampton had their get right game on Sunday v Everton but will come crashing back down to earth here.  My hope is that they continue their expansive play they displayed on the weekend and leave huge gaps for City to attack.  My fear is they realize this and will sit in and hope to break.  Even in that scenario, that doesn’t change the potential for a poacher like Aguero. He does all of his damage between the posts and barring injury, will score 1 or more goals today.

If I’m attacking the Liverpool game it’s going to be the through the PL player of the year thus far, MO SALAH.  The dude has been on fire and Stoke have been conceding 1.6 goals against over their last 5.   They also conceded an average of 2.2 goals against in their last 5 home games.  Goals will be scored and you get a piece of this game through Salah but I like Aguero better today.

Hazard is IN FORM.  He’s averaging 22.6 over this last 3 and what’s more, he tends to score against bad teams.  Swansea are bad.  Chelsea are the biggest favorites on the board and playing at the Bridge with Kante back in the 11.  This is huge as it allows the rest of the team to defend less.  I will have some shares of Hazard.

Last but not least is Alexi Sanchez.  He’s scored in his last 2 and is a lock for 90 minutes.  Huddersfield haven’t been great on the road and this could be a game for Alexis to continue his goal scoring streak. His propensity for yellow cards and fouls tends to hurt his score a touch.  In Tier 1, every point matters.

Lets rank em

UPDATE:  NO SALAH, NO HAZARD.  JESUS IN…

Tier 1:  Aguero, Hazard, Salah, Sanchez, Jesus

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Sterling can’t stop scoring.  KDB is making his debut in Tier 2.  Morata should score, right?

If you couldn’t tell, I’m off Liverpool a bit today. No Mane for me.

Walcott has the big red O next to his name so I’m sure his ownership will be zero.  For good reason.  He hasn’t feature in the first 11 since early November.  It is just an illness so a surprise start wouldn’t be the most shocking thing. I’m still looking elsewhere in this tier.  For the CLASSIC style of play, he could be a very sneaky play.

For Morata it is pretty simple.  If he scores he’s 20+ points.  If not, he’s under 7 points.  That is high risk in a tier with other great options.  He could score 2 today so I’m going to have a share but he’s not first option for me.

For me, it’s between KDB and Sterling. Sane is a good/great option but we need goals in this tier.

KDB – @ home has averaged 18.3 ppg over his last.  He had at least a goal or an assist in each.  I believe that continues today and if he gets on the score sheet, we are winning all the money.  The only time he doesn’t get 90 minutes is when the game is out of hand, which this could be.  The caveat?  Usually he has a hand in goals so that’s a good thing.

Sterling – Here is my option #2.  Sterling is a confidence player.  He scores in streaks.  Earlier this year he scored in 4 straight games.  With goals in his last 2, I do love this spot for him, assuming he starts.

Last, don’t be afraid to play multiple players from City today.  It will be a popular build but they could put 4-5 past Southampton and we need shares.

NO SANE.  NO WALCOTT.  MANE IN.  NO CHANGES

Tier 2: KDB, Sterling, Morata

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This tier will be heavily weighted on starting 11’s.  Check back 20 minutes before kickoff.

You might look at the Everton/West Ham game and throw up in your mouth a bit.  2 teams in shit form but get this, over their last 5 games Everton have conceded an average of 3 goals and West Ham have conceded an average of 2.4 goals against.  Is either team good enough to score?!

I like Sigurdsson in this tier quite a bit.  #1 he handles most if not all set pieces and corners.  He’s 11th among midfielders in crosses this year.  Easy points. He also scored this weekend which, despite the thumping by Southampton, should be a boost to the confidence.

Speaking of scoring this weekend, what up mighty mouse?  Shaqiri also found the back of the net and has been playing well of late. He faces a stiffer test today in Liverpool in a game I see going under 3 goals.  He’s a decent option but not #1.

Firmino was rested this weekend and should be fresh today if he gets the nod.  As always, if he is leading the line we need a share or 2 but if you are making 1 lineup do you want Firmino?  I can make the case that if you fade Coutinho, Salah and Mane that this is your best option to get a piece of Liverpool.  Frankly, I would rather have Shaqiri.

Remember the whole West Ham and Everton suck diatribe above?  Lanzini could be the beneficiary.  He’s been getting 90 minutes consistently which I love.  He needs opportunities to make it work.  He hasn’t really been getting as many shots off as I’d like.

How the mighty have fallen.  Rooney is a shell of his former self.  No thanks.

Last, what to do with David Silva.  Again, we need shares of the City game. If you fade City in either of the first 2 tiers just use Silva here.  He’s not my first option out of this tier.

FIRMINO STARTS ALONGSIDE SOLANKE.  NOT BY HIMSELF. NO D SILVA

Tier 3:  Sigurdsson, Shaqiri, D Silva, Firmino, Lanzini

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Depending on where Ramsey is playing, he’s not a bad choice.  He needs to be relied on further forward for me to invest in him.

This has to be the tier we go Chelsea, right?  Between Fabregas, Zappacosta and Willian, I think I’m going there.

The safest of the 3 is Fabregas.  When deployed with Kante he can put on a masterclass.  If he’s with Bakayoko AND Kante, let freedom ring.  He’ll be the maestro in the middle.

Willian came on to score a worldy in his last game.  If Conte rewards him with a start he might get on the scoresheet again.  Zappacosta is third in this group but not a horrible option.  Probably more for the CLASSIC style of game.

Brady is going to be a solid play.  The game could literally be a 0-0 tie so I’m probably not going there.

WILLIAN AND PEDRO START.  RAMSEY PLAYING NEXT TO XHAKA.

Tier 4: Fabregas, Willian (if he starts), PEDRO, Ramsey, SOLANKE

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This guy could win me a ton of money or cost me my entry fees.  I’m fascinated with Calvert-Lewin today.  West Ham are in shambles at the back.  Everton are at home with their new manager in the stands.  Pairing him with Sigurdsson probably isn’t a +EV play but I’m going balls to the wall.  LET’S GO!

Alexander-Arnold is a very solid play.  When he starts, he produces.  Good luck guessing what Klopp will throw out there.  The good news is we will have team news nice and early today.

I don’t like Mooy v good teams.  Yes, I’m classifying Arsenal as good.  On the road?  Pass.

Moses is still getting his feet underneath him.  Pass.

Moreno will probably start but rarely has produced the end product needed to win you a GPP.

Gudmundsson is a name new to the blog but he’s been insanely solid this year. If you take out the random 3 against Man City from his last 7 games, he’s averaging 13 points.  I’ll have a share.

NO ALEXANDER ARNOLD.  AYEW STARTS UP TOP.

Tier 5: Calvert-Lewin (RISKY), Alexander-Arnold, Gudmundsson, AYEW

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Who has the best chance of wining and getting a shutout?  Begovic.  There is your #1 option.

If you want saves with a potential shutout go with Pope.

I’m avoiding both keepers in the Everton/West Ham game.  I think both teams could score.  It could be an open game without the quality to finish which could result in boatload of saves but I’ll let someone else take the risk.

Liverpool could get the win on the road.  A clean sheet is less likely.  Minolet/Karius could be an option.

For that reason, I don’t like Grant.

MIGNOLET STARTS

Tier 6:  Begovic, Pope, Minolet/Karius, Pickford

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