EPL Pick EM is LIVE for 10.28.17

9:14AM – UPDATES ARE IN. SCROLL DOWN ALL THE WAY.  UPDATES IN RED

It’s Friday mis amigos!

Up and down week last week.  The competition is definitely starting to figure out this structure.  I haven’t had a GPP win in 3 weeks!  Time to change that.  The big payouts are back in the 3 figures for anything under $100 so I’m sprinkling some action in the Classic format as well to get access to larger payouts.  Just an FYI.  I don’t know why the prize pools have dwindled but let’s take advantage before this format completely goes away.

epl 10.28.17

epl 10.28.17 Betting 3epl 10.28.17 Betting 2epl 10.28.17 Betting

Interesting slate with little to no weather concerns. (which is always interesting this time of year)  High totals means lots of goals.  We need to find them if we are going to win the big bucks.

The Arsenal total is interesting and I think shows some recency bias as they were flying last weekend.  The Swans are normally a little tighter at the back.  They’ve only given up 1 goal on the road in 4 games.  Can West Brom’s compact team-play slow down the City attack?  Bournemouth woke up out of nowhere last week to cost me a bunch of money.  Let’s GOOOOO

epl 10.28.17 T1

When Aguero plays, he scores one or more goals.  That’s just kind of how it is. Problem is, he doesn’t do much else besides that.  Unless City score 4+ goals he doesn’t pick up an assist.  He also played 120 minutes on Tuesday and may not start.  Watch for the lineup here.  If he starts, for me, he’s #2 in this tier.

#1?  Alexis Sanchez.  At home with a somewhat questionably high total of 3.5 goals means I need shares of this game.

Coutinho is a late fitness test away from missing this game.  You can look at that two ways…1) keep him out of all of your lineups knowing he’s a risk and you like other players better. 2) sprinkle him in hoping people will be doing #1 and he does play and gets a goal and an assist on what should be an interesting game.  Personally, I’m going route 1.  Coutinho would be 3rd at best in this tier for me this week regardless.  .

Gabriel Jesus and Aguero can play together but I prefer him more when Aguero sits against an easier opponent.  I think Pep rolls out the young guns and let’s em eat.  I’ll do 2 rankings so you know what to expect.

I don’t know how Chelsea will fare in this game.  Bournemouth are playing much better of late and Chelsea have been conceding goals left and right.  That does lead me to believe they will be pushing forward quite a bit and if Morata gets the start he should score at least 1 goal.

Let’s rank em!

NO AGUERO!  GET SOME JESUS IN YOUR LIFE

TIER 1a:  Sanchez, Aguero (starting), Morata, Jesus

TIER 1b: Sanchez, Jesus, Morata, No Aguero

epl 10.28.17 T2

This is a first….all 5 are decent to good plays.  Who’s really going to go off?  That is the question.

If you read the analysis up top you know that I think Pep rolls out the babies for this match on a somewhat quick turn around.  I like the form of Sane right now.  KDB also came on at mid-week to play a few minutes and should be fresh.  I wouldn’t be mad at ya for either play.

Hazard is IN FORM.  He’s a bit of a streaky player.  Bournemouth seemed to have tightened things up at the back a little and the last two EPL home games have a resulted in a win and a draw with a whopping 1 goal scored…total.  To be fair it was listless Leicester and Brighton so Chelsea have the class to put a few in.  The question here is, do we think Chelsea scores 3+ goals?  That may be what we need to hit the top of this tier.  Liverpool and Arsenal could go off.   As much as I love Hazard, I think he is the fade here.

Lacazette doesn’t play 90 minutes.  There, I said it.  That matters to me because I can see this game staying closer than the odds show (maybe 2-0 after 70 minutes??) and the Swans pushing for the game at the end.  That could lead to late breaks in on goal for easy points.  I want exposure through this game but will get it through Sanchez and maybe Ozil/Ramsey.  More on that later.

Salah is a great play every week.  He is so fucking fast that at times his legs move too fast for his brain.  That will frustrate the shit out of you if you are watching him as he legitimately could score 4 goals in some games.  His end product isn’t great but he gets enough chances to make it happen.  He’s in play.

Let’s rank em.

TIER 2:  Sane, Salah, KDB, Lacazette, Hazard

epl 10.28.17 T3

Less game analysis and more to the picks.

I like David Silva.  Didn’t play at midweek and should get 90 here.

Sterling played 120 minutes on Tuesday but is young.  He’s always in play if he starts.  Wouldn’t hate the fade.

Walcott….pass. Batshuayi…passssss.  Pedro…passs.

Ozil and Firmino are very interesting.

Ozil could be the best or the worst player on the field at any moment.  Will he be up for it?  I think so.  He’s buzzing right now and they are at home as a big favorite.  I need a share.

Firmino is a player who excels with the right tactics.  Will Sturridge play?  If so then Firmino sits behind him and isn’t nearly as effective in front of goal.  He tends to drift wide and back when playing in the midfield.  Watch for this Saturday morning when setting your lineups. If he starts in the #9 role then he moves up to #2 in the tier.

The top play in the tier?  Richarlison.  It’s crazy to say with all of this star power that he is but hear me out.  The kid finds the ball in the box.  He missed 2 absolute sitters last weekend and still scored 20 DK points.  Stoke have been AWFUL at the back.  Since September 1 they have given up 2, 2, 2, 4, 1, 7 and 2 goals.  Yeah give me all the Watford players.

Let’s rank em!

NO STERLING.  STURRIDGE STARTS SO LEAVE FIRMINO WHERE HE IS.  SHAQIRI DOES START AND IS GOOD FOR 7-12 PTS

TIER 3:  Richarlison, Ozil, Firmino, Silva, Shaqiri.

epl 10.28.17 T4

You want boom or bust?  Allow me to introduce Daniel “I get hurt walking” Sturridge.  He’s been shit all year but is fully capable of scoring 3 in 40 minutes.  He has completed the 90 minutes exactly 0 times this year.  BUT, if you want to take a stab at winning a tourney in a potentially weak tier there’s your shot.

The play for me is Ramsey.  I think he Ozil and Sanchez are going to do more damage than Lacazette.  I don’t think they run rough shot over the Swans so you can’t play all 3 together but 2 is fine.  Barring a miracle, Welbeck is OUT.

Cesc can do some things if the players in front of him are flying.  With Hazard back in form I think that actually takes away from his forward play believe it or not.  I don’t think I’ll have any shares.

Zaha can be great.  Will he be?  He does tend to play better at home in front of the adoring fans.  West Ham just gave up 3 goals to Brighton at home!  They’ve conceded 11 goals in 5 games on the road.  Can Crystal Palace punch them in the mouth?  If they do, Zaha will have a share of the goal.  I like him in a weak tier.

Antonio is carrying a knock on his ribs and may play but I would stay away.  His goal scoring form has left him.  The caveat, what position and formation do they play?  Carroll  is on a red card I believe and Chicharito SUCKS.  They may push Antonio very far forward.  I still wouldn’t have a ton of interest.

Let’s rank em.  (I hate this tier)

ZAHA STARTING UP TOP ALONE.  I LIKE THIS SPOT.  I’D MOVE HIM AHEAD OF RAMSEY WITH THE ARSENAL TEAM SET UP.  STURRIDGE STARTS!  BERNARDO SILVA GETS THE RARE START

TIER 4: Ramsey,  Zaha, Fabregas, Sturridge (GPP ONLY!!!)

epl 10.28.17 T5

Based on everything above you should have a feel for how I think these games are going to go.  A few notes:

If Deeney starts I like him.  And that’s a big IF…  He is on penalty duty when he’s in so you need a share.

Diouf is in form scoring in each of his last 3.

Zappacosta should get 90 minutes.  Alonso as well.

Chicharito should start and is always a GPP flier.  If a ball ricochets off his neck into the goal it still counts for 10 points and that’s about how he scores.

Choupo-Moting is fake news.

Stick with Diouf, Mooy and Stanislas, who cost me about $300 last time out since I had 0% of him.  He was playing Stoke.  I should have known.

Arnautovic is so much better than he’s shown.  I don’t think I want to be early on his return to glory.  I’ll wait.

DEENEY STARTS!!  DIOUF IS IN A GOOD SPOT.  CHICHARITO/CHOUPO-MOTING ARE YOUR 1% GPP FLIERS.  I’M NOT GOING THERE.

TIER 5:  Deeney (if he starts), Mooy, Diouf, Zappacosta, Stanislas

epl 10.28.17 T6 1

I fucking suck at picking a goalie.  It’s like picking a defense in NFL.  Throw a freaking dart and let’s go!

Seriously though, if you don’t believe the Bournemouth resurgence is for real just plug in Courtois and move on.

Watford should get the win so Gomes is in play.  If you believe in trends Gomes has gone 7, 0, 13, 0 in his last 4.  He must be due for a nice little Saturday stat line.

Speroni has shored up the back line of Palace a little but this is still relegation ready Palace we are talking about here.  They do have the lowest total on the board.

Let’s rank em.

TIER 6:  Courtois, Speroni, Gomes, Begovic

There we have it.  Go make some cash and tweet me @dukeoesports with your winnings.

Stay cashin!

conor mcgregor gif

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