We’re back and ready to drink when the sun comes up. We might as well make some money while we are doing it! A relatively short slate of games with a lot of new faces and names. Let’s dive in. UPDATES IN BLUE
CASH: DON’T GET CUTE. AGUERO WILL SCORE. YOU MAY NEED A VALUE M/F TO MAKE HIM WORK.
There they are boys and girls. Lucky for us, they haven’t included the first game of the day as Watford and Liverpool face off at 7:45 EST. No time to waste…lesssgo. PS – if you hate analysis, skip to the bottom. APPARENTLY WE ARE DOING GOALS THIS YEAR!
The returning champs are the heavy favorite and should be. This is also one of the 2 highest totals on the board. Burnley gave up 1.8 goals against on the road last year. There is a bit of turnover for Chleasea here as their main goalscorer is off banging Brazilian hookers, Hazard is hurt and Matic is wearing a United shirt. It’s time for Batshuayi to step into the Costa sized hole in the front line and I think he’s ready. No Hazard means a lot more playmaking and set pieces fall on the shoulders of Fabregas. (As will penalties) Burnley offers little to nothing going forward and just sold their top scorer from last year. Actually bad. I think Cesc slides a couple through for Batsy and Chelsea run away with it. I’d avoid new boy Morata. He may not start. I’m tempted to play Courtois but I don’t see him making a ton of saves and he’s very expensive.
Players to target: Batshuayi, Fabregas, Alonso (if you can afford him) and Cahill, I MAY HAVE A $3,800 FLIER ON BOGA WHO IS STARTING TODAY ON 1 LINEUP
I don’t quite understand Crystal Palace. On the surface they should offer a lot going forward but rarely seem to find the back of the net. With a new coach and a new system, I’m cautiously optimistic that they can put together a nice run this year to finish in the top half. The same cannot be said for Huddersfield. Though they only gave up 1.4 goals a game on the road last year that was against Championship quality. The new boys tend to get off to a slow start and I can see Benteke finding the back of the net. He’s on pen duty this year as well. The juice is on the under for a reason. I would mostly avoid this game but…
Players to target: Benteke, Hennessey, Zaha, Ince (Huddersfield)
UPDATE: NOT GOING TO HAVE MUCH OF THIS GAME. MAYBE PICKFORD
Roooooooonnnnneeeeeyyyyyy. The prodigal son returns. It would be a story book return if Rooney could find the back of the net and Everton seem like they will give him every chance to do so. He’ll be playing up top or underneath Sandro with a 3rd new face Davy Klaassan filling in for transfer pending/injured Ross Barkley. Heavy juice on the under here again so where are the points coming from? Everton’s back line is SLOW. With Coleman still recovering from injury it looks likely that Jagielka will slide out to RB and allow new boy Michael Keane to make his debut in the middle of the park. Could there be room in behind for the speedy Berahino and Diouf? Probably. If there is, surely Shaqiri will be the man slotting them in. Now Diouf needs about 5 chances to score a goal so I’m looking to the under priced Berahino at $3,800 to sneak one in. I do think Rooney get’s on the score sheet somehow. He’ll probably have about 5 shots with 1-2 on goal with 4-5 crosses. That’s good for 8-9 points by itself. A 10 pt goal would put it over the top. Sometimes the script writers just come through.
Players to Target: Rooney, Berahino, Shaqiri, CALVERT-LEWIN STARTING UP FRONT. ROONEY IN BEHIND. KNOCKING ROO DOWN A NOTCH.
Yuck. Kind of a shitty slate of games. The Swans were saved by Paul Clement and have added youth but are at risk of losing surprisingly useful DFS player Gylfi Sigurdsson. He won’t play in this one so I’m looking mostly at the home team in Southampton. That leaky Swans defense gave up 1.9 Goals against last year and have done absolutely nothing to sure it up. Gabbiadini is a monster in front of the net and Tadic, when on, looks like a world beater. I’d have a look at these two first. Soares, if healthy, is a great option here as Swansea could be willing to sit back and allow the fullbacks push forward. Soares loves to put a cross in and rack up points. Gabbiadini has a knack for putting some body part on the end of them. At only $6,900 he seems like a cash game play as well as GPP. Southampton are without rock in the back van Dijk and Yoshida is recovering from a bit of a knock but avoid the Swans. Who scores without Gylfi? Ayew?
Players to Target: Gabbiadini, Soares, Tadic, Bertrand (if Tammy Abraham was healthy I play him as a punt but watch the injury news. At $3,500 he may sneak a ball in the back of the old onion bag. He’s a handful)
Weird one, this. HEAVY juice on the under and it’s simply down to West Brom being so stingy. I love watching Bournemouth because they usually go for a result. I might avoid this game all together but here is an almost guarantee…if Defoe starts, he finds his name on the score sheet. He’s had so little help the last few years that his move to Bournemouth severely upgrades his supporting talent. Defoe and Josh King provide a nice little 1-2 punch. Fraser is a handful when on but I’m going to stay away for week 1. On the other side, Rondon is the main man. Chadli is an all or nothing GPP play. This look like a 1-1 draw to me. NO RONDON IN FIRST 11.
Players to Target: Defoe, King,
Rondon, Phillips, Chadli
Chalk city. Everyone is going to be hammering Man City and I can’t blame them. This is Max Scherzer against Little League West All-Stars. Here is my one word of caution…in 23 home games last year Brighton and Hove Albion only conceeded 14 goals. 0.6 GA is solid, even if it is against the little sister of the poor in the Championship. The talent gap will be large. City will have 65% of the posession but I don’t think this one will get quite as out of hand as people think. The obvious target is Aguero. The guy is a goal, shot, shot on goal, fouls drawn MONSTER. He’s also kind of a slow starter and carries a massive price tag at $10.2k, only surpassed by teammate De Bruyne at $10.4k. You can’t use both so what’s the play? De Bruyne in cash and Aguero in GPP. That’s my advice. Ederson may be the chalk GK due to price/win expectancy. I don’t know how many actual saves he will make. Jesus and Sterling are both great options and could score a goal. BHA – nothing. I just don’t see anyone making a DFS impact in this game.
Players to Target: De Bruyne, Jesus, Aguero, Sterling, Walker, Ederson
Top Targets by position:
F – Batshuayi, Aguero, JESUS, Gabbiadini, Benteke, Berahino, ABRAHAM
M – De Bruyne, Fabregas, Sterling, Tadic, Shaqiri, Ince
D – Soares, Alonso, Bertrand, Walker, Danilo, Cahill
GK – Courtois, Ederson, Hennessey, Begovic
RANKING $3,800 F MOST LIKELY TO SCORE: BERAHINO, ABRAHAM, CALVERT-LEWIN, BOGA
There you have it. If you have specific questions feel free to tweet me @dukeoesports. DM’s are wide open. Get the paper!