YTD : 12-12, -1.9U
Rough Saturday afternoon but came back strong with a 3U win on Saturday night with UNC. I’m usually very picky with my plays but I found four absolute gems on a Tuesday night so I felt the need to play em and post em to make everyone some money. Let’s go!
7:00 / SEC N : Auburn @ LSU — Auburn -3.5
LSU has been a nightmare this year and the fact Johnny Jones has not been fired yet is beyond me. LSU is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation but they have been able to put up points at times. Blakeney has been on a tear the last 4 games, going well over 20 in each, but their other two top options, Patterson and Craig Victor have been out and/or non-factors in the last 10. LSU’s season is over, Johnny Jones is waiting on a pink slip, and Blakeney is operating as a man trying to improve his draft stock. Auburn, on the other hand, is a team playing with the energy of a formerly disgraced fired coach, Bruce Pearl, that is desperate to make a late push for the tourney. They start four freshman and have the potential of a team that can do some big things in a perpetually down SEC. This is as much a play on a team on the rise as it is on a team that has given up.
BET : Auburn -3.5 — 3U
7:00 / ESPN : 29 South Carolina @ #13 Florida — Florida -10
Florida has been one of my favorite teams to watch all season ever since they played neck and neck with Gonzaga in Disney in the early season tourneys. I love the dual PG’s in Kasey Hill and Chiozza, along with Canyon Berry, Allen, Robinson, and Leon. The guy with the most potential was big man John Egbunu. Unfortunately he has lost his season to an ACL. Kevarrius Hayes was an apt role player inside at 6-9 but I am not confident in his ability to replace Egbunu completely. South Carolina has been all about the defensive side of the ball ever since Frank Martin took over. This has never been more apparent than the first matchup between these teams this season when Florida was 0-17 from 3, as South Carolina allows only 29% from range on the season. In fact, Florida only score .76 Points Per Possession in the first matchup, which is a RIDICULOUS number. The Cocks ultimately came up with a 57-53 win at home but the problem is that South Carolina has been so inept on offense at times this year that they can’t overcome the incredible defensive numbers. Sindarius Thornwell has been dominating much of the season for the Cocks and I think PJ Dozier will be enough of a compliment in this one to keep this game close throughout. In a low possession game where South Carolina has the best player in the game and superior defense, I will take 10 all day.
BET : South Carolina +10 — 2U
7:00 / ESPN U : Clemson @ 37 Virginia Tech — Virginia Tech -3
Virginia Tech has essentially clinched a spot in the field with recent wins at home against Virginia, a road win at Pitt and a near win at Louisville on Saturday. They have been playing great of late and are one of the most efficient offenses in the nation this year under Buzz Williams. Clemson is a really aggressive defensive team but they are very undisciplined in the half court and VT will make them pay. The one concern here is VT being #14 in the ACC at defending the 3, never more evident in the first matchup @Clemson when the Tigers hit 13-27. As long as the Hokies can prevent Blossongame and the Tigers from raining 3’s all night, VT should pull this one out by 8-11 points.
BET : Virginia Tech -3 — 2U
8:00 / ACC N : NC State @ Georgia Tech – GT -5
Georgia Tech has been absolutely awesome at home this year going 14-3 with wins over UNC, Clemson, Florida St., Notre Dame, and Syracuse. Josh Pastnor has these guys playing with a purpose right now and they have actually snuck into Lunardi’s field as an 11-seed in the East. NC State, on the other hand, has fired their HC who has decided to stay on until the end of the season and we successfully faded them on Saturday. We will do so again here, along with a major play on GT at home right now. NC State has some players on the offensive end, particularly Dennis Smith Jr, but they have had trouble stopping anyone all season long. GT is one of the worst offensive teams in the ACC but they managed to score a ridiculous 1.23 Points Per Possession in the previous matchup with @NCSU with ten 3PM. Tech is one of the best in the ACC on the defensive side of the ball and specifically funneling everything to Lammers shot blocking on the inside. This is a mismatch of motivation and I can see Tech pulling away with this one.
BET : Georgia Tech -5 — 2U