Already posted the confidence picks for every bowl game but now we are diving into the spreads to make some real money. I will be posting throughout bowl season with any games I see an edge to keep stacking cash like we did all season long.
LAS VEGAS BOWL — Las Vegas, NV
3:30 / ABC : 26 Houston (4-7-1,9-3) vs. 34 San Diego St. (6-6-1,10-3) — Hou -5.5, 51.5
Houston has been a possible playoff team since their domination of Oklahoma in Week 1 but stumbled into 3 bad losses along the way, which has placed them here for bowl season. They have shown flashes of brilliance in their beatdowns of both Oklahoma and Louisville, shutting down the Heisman winner in that second matchup. The offense has been rather up and down throughout the year, with Greg Ward banged up all season. The defense has been where this team has been strong throughout. They have been shutting down the running game all season, which will be the key matchup in this one considering…
Donnell Pumphrey has had an incredible career and will be looking to surpass Ron Dayne for the all time rushing leader with 108 rushing yards in this game. However, Pumphrey has been shut down at times this season when the Aztecs became too reliant on the running game with no threat of a passing attack. San Diego St. must show some balance in this game to have any chance of keeping this thing close because Houston will be ready to tee off on Pumphrey and prove a point that they can truly shut down anyone. Ed Oliver and Stephen Taylor have been absolute beasts in the run D for Houston and I see them living in the Aztec backfield all afternoon. Oliver will be the #1 pick come the 2018 NFL Draft.
Look, you can break down matchups all day but a lot of the time bowl season comes down to motivation. Who wants to be here? At first glance, you would have to say Houston would rather be hitting the casinos and strip clubs that Vegas has to offer, especially considering they were thinking playoffs early on in the season and just had their coach bail for the big payday in Austin, Texas. San Diego St will be fired up to be here and lift their program to new heights by boasting that they have college football’s all time leading rusher right?
Reports are that the Aztecs have actually been the team out all night on Fremont Street looking for all the hookers and blow in Vegas. Houston has been focused, has their Offensive Coordinator taking over full time, and is looking at this as the start to an awesome 2017 season and career with their new head man in place. San Diego St is WAY too one dimensional and that will be a major issue with Houston shutting down that running game. This game could get ugly REAL FAST.
BET : Houston -5.5 — 3 Dimes, Houston -3 (1H) — 2 Dimes
CURE BOWL — Orlando, FL
5:30 / CBS SN : UCF (8-4,6-6) vs. Arkansas St. (6-6,7-5) — UCF -5.5, 51
Scott Frost has done an incredible job in his first season at UCF, turning around 0-12 to 6-6 and a bowl appearance. UCF will be playing in front of the home crowd, where they are 3-3 this year. Arkansas St is coming into this one hot after a very rough start to the season. Arkansas St has one of the most disruptive defenses in the nation with 110 TFL (#2 nation) and 37 Sacks (#12 nation) on the season. UCF, meanwhile, has been an absolute nightmare on offense all season, ranking in the 100’s in both rushing and passing offense in the nation, not to mention that they have also allowed 30 sacks on the year which places them in the bottom quarter of all teams. This will be a low scoring game throughout and I will gladly take the points with the better offense and much more aggressive defense.
BET : Arkansas St. +5.5 — 2 Dimes